Route Prediction from Trip Observations

This paper develops and tests algorithms for predicting the end-to-end route of a vehicle based on GPS observations of the vehicle’s past trips. We show that a large portion of a typical driver’s trips are repeated. Our algorithms exploit this fact for prediction by matching the first part of a driver’s current trip with one of the set of previously observed trips. Rather than predicting upcoming road segments, our focus is on making long term predictions of the route. We evaluate our algorithms using a large corpus of real world GPS driving data acquired from observing over 250 drivers for an average of 15.1 days per subject. Our results show how often and how accurately we can predict a driver’s route as a function of the distance already driven.